Risk, Reason, and the Reluctant Winner's Mind
When I drove an ATV off a mountain in Park City, I felt oddly serene as it tumbled toward the rocks and treetops below. It wasn't bravery; it wasn't even panic—it was acceptance.
A neurologist later told me my brain was fine, except for anxiety, depression, and a touch of ADD. "With reasoning scores like these," he added, "you could do just about whatever you like. Have you considered law school?"
But I'd already been doing something else: gambling—and winning. Reluctantly.
This wasn't a path I'd chosen; it chose me because my mind is inherently odd. Everything is probability for me. Every decision, every situation, and every outcome gets filtered through the lens of risk and expected value.
It's how I navigated life from an early age—
from poker tables at 16 using questionable IDs in Atlantic City,
through internships at hedge funds and Goldman Sachs,
and eventually to betting lines across major sportsbooks.
Before you mistake this as an invitation to follow suit, let me be explicit:
The odds are overwhelmingly against you.
The house nearly always wins, and your instincts about luck and "gut feelings" are dangerously overrated.
There's a 99.9% chance gambling will cost you money—and perhaps far worse.
However, I realize some minds out there are like mine—wired differently, seeing edges where others see randomness.
For us, not gambling when there's clear expected value feels like leaving money lying on the sidewalk out of sheer laziness.
This site exists precisely for those rare individuals who:
- Think in probabilities
- Live comfortably with uncertainty
- Want guidance on turning reluctant odds into reluctant wins
It also exists for those interested in understanding risk and reward through the eyes of someone who lives at the intersection of neurology, psychology, finance, and betting.
What to Expect Here
- 📈 Educational breakdowns of +EV bets
- 🎲 Personal stories from poker and sports betting
- 🧠 Sharp takes on risk, psychology, variance, and value
- ⚠️ Constant reminders not to gamble unless you're truly wired for it
Radical transparency is my ethos. I'll call out the nonsense, separate alpha from noise, and expose the real math behind what it means to win reluctantly.
If you're here for the stories and not the strategies, you'll still find plenty to chew on.
But if you're considering gambling, let me leave you with the disclaimer upfront and center:
Don't gamble.
The risks far outweigh the rewards for nearly everyone.
But if you're determined, stubborn, or simply wired that way—stick around.
I'll show you what it means to be a reluctant winner.